Leaning on the data for extra points and two-point conversions,https://suecoyne.com/wp-searches.php?tag/usa/, Urschel came up with the following formulas to predict the probability of converting each one: It doesn t take a probability theorist to know that the expected points (the sum of each possible point outcome times the likelihood of each occurring) of the two-point conversion is now higher than that of an extra point kick,http://www.tilmanngrawe.com/phpinfo.php?produits/9025-training-squad-psg-2014-2015-nike, Urschel wrote. E(two-point conversion) = 2x.479 + 0x(1-.479) = .958 points E(extra point) = 1x.928 + 0x(1-.928) = .928 points It s simple math,http://auramodels.co.uk/wp-atom.php?men-watches/longines-watches/longines-conquest-classic-two-tone-watch-quetta-pakistan.html, right? The expected points for two-point conversions is greater, so of course all 32 NFL teams are going to do away with extra points and go for two every time,http://www.myfishcasting.com/search.php?fodboldtroejer/7118-cultural-y-deportiva-leonesa/, right? Not so fast. Just because the expected points of one endeavor is greater than the other,http://www.palinglaku.com/wp-xml.php?dansk_fodbold/superligaen/esbjerg/, doesn t mean it is what coaches are going to do. In Urschel's opinion,http://www.minuteetseconde.com/wp-searches.phpdrapeau-italie-855180, NFL coaches will remain fairly conservative in their philosophy and will still avoid going for two points despite the increased length of extra points. Because,http://villainkeri.com/wp-pass.php?Antrel-Rolle-(Number-Coming-Soon)-Men-s-Game-Home-Jersey.aspx, as you might have surmised at some point,http://uniquecreatures.com.au/wp-db.php?watches/bvlgari.php, NFL coaches are risk averse,http://onestopkidspartyshop.com.au/wp-searches.php?swiss_richard_mille_replica_watches.html, Urschel wrote. Coaches like low variation,http://www.brentwoodbrewing.co.uk/fantversion.php?category/portuguese-liga/, and a difference of .03 expected points per extra point is not nearly enough to deter them from the safer choice of going with a slightly longer kick (which has variance of .07) as opposed to the much riskier two-point conversion (which has variance .25). There may be some who embrace the new system and take advantage of this opportunity,http://www.annphysiocare.com/wp-styles.php?ac-milan-c-428_429.html, but my guess is most won t. awilson@baltsun.comtwitter.com/RavensInsider Copyright 2015,http://dgrmarcomms.com/wp-content.php?landsholdsfodbold/article5177112.ece,相关的主题文章：


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