Australian leaders publicly claim there is no problem. They act as if Australia can keep supplying China's steel mills, and welcoming Chinese students,http://www.bonus-invest.no/spacer.asp?adidas-fotballdrakt-olympique-lyonnais-fares-bahlouli-29-hjemmedrakt-2014-2015-v-533.html, immigrants and red capitalist investors, while pretending not to notice the friction and ever-growing demands. Behind closed doors, of course, it's a different story.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott earned himself an honesty prize after the G20 summit in November,http://www.vincinibottier.com/wp-title.php?catalog/product/Nike_Youth_San_Diego_Chargers_Brandon_Flowers_Team_Color_Game_Jersey, when Germany's Angela Merkel asked what drove his China policies.

Illustration: John Spooner
Since then Australia's bipolar China syndrome has grown more acute.
The fear side of the national psyche was on show last week when a Pentagon official said he would be placing long-range B-1 bombers and surveillance aircraft in Australia as part of a regional response to China's aggressive territorial claims. The specifics were denied by Abbott,http://www.jocko.dk/SSdk.php?efb-fodboldtroejer/, and retracted by the Pentagon, but the fact remains that Australia is deepening military co-operation with the US and half a dozen other nations in the region to guard against what they all see as a gathering Chinese threat. A few American bombers in the Australian outback would barely raise an eyebrow compared with the sorts of actions that are being privately contemplated much closer to Chinese shores.
I asked Peter Jennings, who chairs the Abbott government's experts panel advising on the upcoming defence white paper, to explain what the US would do to restrain China from asserting audacious claims of maritime sovereignty around the artificial islands it . The next step after asserting our position is the simple physical demonstration of it by actually sailing through the sea and airspace, Jennings said.
Jennings, who was deputy defence secretary responsible for strategy up until 2012,http://tsgs-net.de/wp-plugins.php?tag/liga-bbva, made clear that this would be an Australian project too: If we're serious about asserting it then we'll have to do it, at some stage.
While fear is pushing Australia to stiffen its military defences,http://www.rockpocketgames.com/wp-searches.php?fodboldtrojer-landshold/brasilien, greed had the upper hand on budget night, just one day before the Pentagon statement, when Treasurer Joe Hockey delivered a set of rosy fiscal forecasts. Underpinning Hockey's burst of optimism was a heroic assumption that Xi would find a way to combine his insistence on unfettered power with new effective financial institutions and norms that would liberate the market. A broader-based model of growth will enhance the resilience of the Chinese economy as the market plays a more decisive role and institutional settings are reformed, explained the Treasury budget papers, ignoring the gap between Chinese reform rhetoric and reality.
Hockey is sticking to the old assumptions of institutional evolution and convergence while,http://www.bikelane.com.au/wp-searches.php?tag/masita/, elsewhere in Canberra, a parallel universe of intelligence analysts, military strategists and diplomats are working to an opposing set of assumptions. Since 2009, and particularly since the ascendancy of Xi, they've come to see a China that is challenging the freedoms,http://www.minuteetseconde.com/phpinfo.php?Football/FootballFicheJoueur34762.html, norms and institutions that have enabled free trade and commerce to prosper since World War II.
The fear-and-greed responses from different arms of the Abbott government, and sometimes from Abbott himself at different times of the day, invite ridicule. Hugh White has argued on these pages that Abbott and his government have revealed themselves to be naive , deluded
The episode that was seen to exemplify the China bipolar syndrome was Australia's initial rejection and then late scramble to join the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. Kerry Brown, at the University of Sydney, blamed the government's incoherence upon Kevin Rudd's failure to build any kind of strategic framework for dealing with China.
But I don't think the critics have it right. Actually, on the charges of delusion, helplessness and strategy,http://www.rockpocketgames.com/wp-theme.php?chaussures/chaussures-homme/football/puntero-7-trx-hg/7541.html, I think they have it exactly wrong.
The good news is that Australia has had a clear,http://www.sjoveganhytta.no/kontakt.php?Feyenoord-Fotballtr%25C3%25B8ye-3012, consistent and sound China strategy ever since the Defence Intelligence Organisation began querying why a China that was committed to its own peaceful rise might be developing the world's first anti-ship ballistic missiles, anti-satellite missiles and other platforms for projecting military power far from its shores. This analytical clarity overcame three decades of wishful thinking to feed into Rudd's prescient defence white paper of 2009 and it helped to nudge Hillary Clinton towards her pivot to Asia strategy the following year.
The Australian analysis matured into a strategy of engage and hedge which was set out in a Rudd cabinet report of December 2010 and was then endorsed and updated by the Gillard and Abbott cabinets. The strategy is a rational response to the fear, greed and sheer uncertainty engendered by China's rise.
The problem, however,http://www.door6.co.uk/wp-plugins.php?%3Fattachment_id%3D11936, is that ever since Rudd was savaged for his 2009 white paper he and his successors have not been game to publicly acknowledge that there is anything to hedge against.
Abbott would be prepared to call the bluff of China's sabre-rattling generals in the South China Sea but he baulks at the tycoons, middlemen, vice-chancellors, entrepreneurs,http://limgclub.com/wp-plugins.php?messi-fodbold, scholars and treasurers who are loudly offended whenever their assumptions of boundless opportunity are disturbed. The twin imperatives of economic engagement and security hedging coexist,http://www.producteursdemaregion.com/single.php?u/pl-tottenham/, in their parallel bureaucratic and emotional universes, and now they have to be reconciled. Abbott should remember that when he privately confessed his fear and greed to Angela Merkel it led to cathartic laughter on both sides.
John Garnaut is Fairfax Media's Asia-Pacific editor.
DISCLOSURE: John Garnaut is an advisory board member of , which is convening its first national meeting with officials in Canberra on Friday.相关的主题文章：


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