WASHINGTON -- If there was one thing most economists agreed on at the start of the year,http://onestopkidspartyshop.com.au/wp-diff.php?accesories/wallets/chivas-fmf-wallet, it was this: Plunging oil prices would boost the U.S. economy.
It hasn't worked out that way.
The economy is thought to have shrunk in the January-March quarter and may barely grow for the first half of 2015 -- thanks in part to sharp cuts in energy drilling. And despite their savings at the gas pump, consumers have slowed rather than increased their spending.
At $2.71 a gallon,http://www.producteursdemaregion.com/phpinfo.php?maajoukkueet/u21, the average price of gas nationwide is nearly $1 lower than it was a year ago. In January, the average briefly reached $2.03, the lowest in five years.
Expected to be a driver
Cheaper oil and gas had been expected to turbocharge spending and drive growth, more than making up for any economic damage caused by cutbacks in the U.S. oil patch.
Consider what Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in December: Lower gas prices, Yellen declared,http://www.seduberry.com/fantversion.php?u/adizero/, are "certainly good for families. ... It's like a tax cut that boosts their spending power."
Other experts were more direct: "Lower oil prices are an unambiguous plus for the U.S. economy," Chris Lafakis,http://www.the5m.com/wp-pass.php?teams/b/barcelona/old-barcelona-football-shirt-s5621.html, an economist at Moody's Analytics,http://limgclub.com/wp-plugins.php?blog/rm-3-troje-13-14/, wrote in January.
So what did they get wrong,http://www.welshdiving.co.uk/wp-atom.php?player-soccer-jersey/Bocanegra?
Evolving effects
It turns out that the economic effects of lower energy prices have evolved since the Great Recession. Corporate spending on drill rigs,http://www.penomenu.nl/wp-xml.php?chelsea-trainingspak/, steel piping for wells and railcars to transport oil has become an increasingly vital driver of economic growth. So when oil prices fall and energy companies retrench, the economy suffers.
The drilling boom that erupted in 2008 has boosted U.S. oil production nearly 75 percent and natural gas 30 percent and made the United States the world's largest combined producer of oil and natural gas. Energy production contributes about 2 percent to economic output,http://www.akkanatayakkabi.com/wp-searches.php?produkter/fotball-bukse/umbro-romero-nikkers-fotball-sort/, up from less than 1 percent in 2000.
'Hurt more than helped'
Yet in recent months, industry activity has dropped more sharply than predicted.
"So far,http://medyamagazine.com/wp-xml.php?chaussure-foot-magista-ola-tf-id_8310774.html, it is fair to say that we have been hurt more than helped," Lafakis acknowledges now.
Some economists are reconsidering assumptions they use to forecast the economy,http://www.rockpocketgames.com/wp-walker.php?chaussure-football-clr-500-id_8302834.html.
"The benefit of lower oil prices is less pronounced than, say, 10 years ago,http://www.chamika-tours.de/wp-feed.php?tag/verletzung," says Jim Burkhard,http://www.the5m.com/wp-atom.php?1er-Maillot-de-AC-Milan-Adidas-2014-2015-ML, a researcher at IHS Energy. "You're taking a big engine of economic activity and cutting it sharply."
Lafakis and many others still expect consumers to spend much of their savings from cheaper gas, powering faster growth in the second half of the year. Economists say it can take up to six months for people to spend unexpected windfalls. But any gains won't likely be enough to counter the anemic start to the year.
Moody's Analytics expects the economy to expand just 2.6 percent this year, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3 percent. (The downgrade is also due in part to a stronger U.S. dollar, which has depressed exports.)相关的主题文章：


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